How Sweden Became Europe’s First Smoke-Free Nation in 2025

Note: This article is for information only. Nicotine is addictive and not risk-free. Any nicotine product is intended for adult users only.

What “smoke-free” really means

When headlines say Sweden is now smoke-free, it doesn’t mean nobody in the country smokes anymore.

The milestone is based on a widely used public-health benchmark: a country is considered “smoke-free” when fewer than 5% of adults are daily smokers.

According to calculations by Swedish economist David Sundén, using data from Sweden’s Public Health Agency, Sweden dropped below that 5% threshold on 25 October 2025 – making it the first country in Europe (and one of the first in the world) to hit smoke-free status.

From heavy smoking to historic low: Sweden’s long decline

Sweden didn’t flip a switch overnight. Its smoking rates have been falling for decades.

• In the mid-2000s, around 15% of adults smoked daily.
  

• By 2024, that figure had dropped to about 5–5.4%, the lowest in Europe.
  

• Young Swedes got there first: people aged 15–24 passed below the 5% daily-smoking mark several years before the rest of the population.
  
  

Crucially, this decline in smoking has been mirrored by lower rates of smoking-related disease and death. For example, Sweden records some of the lowest smoking-related mortality in the EU, far below countries with higher cigarette use.

The “Swedish model”: three pillars of harm reduction

So what actually got Sweden to smoke-free status? Sundén and other analysts point to a combination of policies, rather than a single silver bullet.

1. High taxes and strict rules on cigarettes

Sweden has steadily increased excise taxes on cigarettes and tightened rules around where you can smoke, advertise and sell tobacco.

That made smoking:

• more expensive
  

• less convenient
  

• less socially acceptable
  

— creating a powerful push away from combustible cigarettes.

2. Legal, regulated access to non-combustible nicotine

Unlike most EU countries, Sweden has a long history with snus – a moist oral tobacco product used under the upper lip. Snus is banned elsewhere in the EU, but Sweden negotiated an exemption when it joined the union in 1995.

Over time, traditional snus has been joined by tobacco-free nicotine pouches, often called “white snus”, which deliver nicotine without burning tobacco. These products aren’t risk-free and still contain addictive nicotine, but because they avoid smoke inhalation, independent research suggests they are significantly less harmful than cigarettes.

The key point in the Swedish model is that adult smokers have widely available alternatives that are:

• familiar culturally
  

• relatively affordable compared with cigarettes (tax is lower on snus than on cigarettes)
  

• allowed within a clear regulatory framework
  
  

That combination seems to have encouraged many smokers to switch from smoking to smokeless nicotine rather than just quit nicotine altogether.

3. Gradual culture shift, led by younger generations

Surveys suggest that younger Swedes led the move away from cigarettes, with daily smoking among 15–24-year-olds dropping below 5% well before the overall population.

Several factors contributed:

• Strong public-health messaging on the harms of smoking
  

• Smoke-free indoor spaces becoming the norm
  

• Social norms shifting so that cigarettes feel “old-fashioned” or undesirable
  

• Greater acceptance of oral alternatives among young adults
  
  

This youth-driven change is one reason Sweden’s drop in smoking looks so different from many other countries where older age groups continue to smoke at much higher rates.

How Sundén calculated Sweden’s smoke-free date

In his analysis for Haypp Group and others, economist David Sundén used a simple but transparent method to estimate when Sweden would reach the 5% threshold.

In brief:

1. He looked at Public Health Agency data showing that the proportion of daily smokers aged 16–84 fell by 4.9 percentage points between 2015 and 2024.
   

2. Spread over 3,643 days, that works out to an average decline of roughly 0.0013 percentage points per day.
   

3. At the end of 2024, daily smoking was about 5.4%.
   

4. Projecting the same average pace of decline forward suggested Sweden would drop below 5% daily smokers on day 298 of 2025 – 25 October.
   
   

It’s an estimate, not an exact “on the dot” measurement, but it aligns with what independent groups have reported: Sweden is now comfortably under the 5% line and far ahead of the EU average.

How Sweden compares to the UK, EU and US

Sweden’s progress looks striking when you compare timelines. Various projections suggest:

• Sweden: hit smoke-free status in 2025.
  

• United Kingdom: daily smoking around 11–12%; expected to reach smoke-free sometime in the early 2030s if current trends continue.
  

• United States: adult smoking still roughly 1 in 10; forecast to fall below 5% a little after 2030.
  

• EU overall: many countries remain far from the target and may not reach smoke-free status until well after 2040.
  
  

These differences are part of why Sweden is now often held up as a “proof-of-concept” for tobacco harm reduction: a real-world example where widespread access to non-combustible nicotine coincides with very low smoking rates and lower smoking-related disease.

The public-health impact: fewer smokers, fewer smoking-related deaths

Lower smoking rates don’t just look good on a chart; they show up in health outcomes.

Comparisons across Europe suggest:

• Sweden has among the lowest rates of smoking-related cancers and deaths in the EU.
  

• Countries with much higher smoking prevalence (for example, parts of Eastern Europe) see several times more smoking-related deaths per 100,000 men.
  
  

Sundén’s modelling argues that hundreds of thousands of deaths could be avoided every year across the EU if other countries matched Sweden’s trajectory and embraced a similar harm-reduction strategy rather than relying solely on bans and high taxes on all nicotine products.

Lessons – and warnings – for other countries

Sweden’s experience offers several takeaways for policymakers, but it also comes with important caveats.

1. Harm reduction can work at population level

Sweden suggests that supporting adult smokers to switch to much lower-risk alternatives – instead of only telling them to quit nicotine completely – can dramatically cut cigarette use and related disease.

Key elements include:

• Clear differentiation between combustible and non-combustible products in law and taxation
  

• Stable rules that give smokers confidence to switch without fearing their chosen alternative will suddenly be banned
  

• Honest communication about relative risks, avoiding both alarmism and promotion
  
  

2. Youth protection still matters

At the same time, Sweden is not a risk-free fairy tale. There are real concerns around youth nicotine use, particularly with flavoured oral products and strong marketing.

Public-health groups in Sweden and elsewhere have warned that:

• Some teenagers who might never have smoked are trying snus or nicotine pouches.
  

• Flavours and social-media marketing can make these products more attractive to young people.
  
  

For other countries looking at Sweden as a model, the challenge is striking the right balance:

• Protecting non-smokers and youth from nicotine uptake
  

• While still keeping genuinely lower-risk options available to adults who already smoke and might otherwise stick with cigarettes
  
  

3. Copying Sweden isn’t as simple as copying its products

Finally, it’s worth noting that Sweden’s success is tied to:

• decades of cultural familiarity with snus
  

• a particular political and regulatory history
  

• a health-care system and public-health culture that may differ very sharply from those in other countries
  
  

Simply importing the same products without building a coherent harm-reduction strategy, youth safeguards and clear communication is unlikely to deliver the same results.

Conclusion: A milestone, not the finish line

Sweden crossing the 5% threshold in 2025 is a major public-health milestone. It shows that a country can dramatically reduce smoking – and the disease that comes with it – not only through bans and restrictions, but also by making smoke-free alternatives available, affordable and socially acceptable to adult smokers.

But it’s not the end of the story:

• Some Swedes still smoke.
  

• Nicotine use hasn’t disappeared – it has shifted toward smokeless products.
  

• Policymakers still face hard questions about youth protection, marketing, and how to regulate new nicotine technologies.

For now, though, Sweden stands as Europe’s first smoke-free nation, and a real-world case study that will shape debates on harm reduction, nicotine policy and tobacco control for years to come.